NOAA sticks with below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecast as peak season nears
The agency's mid-season update points to a quieter Atlantic basin, even as forecasters warn the most dangerous weeks are still ahead.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration used its mid-season update this week to reaffirm a below-normal outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, even as forecasters cautioned that the calendar's most active stretch has not yet arrived.
As of the update, the basin had produced two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, and no hurricanes. Arthur formed in the Gulf off the Texas coast in mid-June and dumped record rainfall on parts of Louisiana while spinning off several tornadoes. Bertha followed weeks later, taking shape in the Gulf south of the Florida Panhandle before coming ashore in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana.
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NOAA's updated numbers call for six to ten named storms this season, with two to five reaching hurricane strength and up to two becoming major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. Separately, the tropical meteorology team at Colorado State University has also trimmed its own projections, putting the odds of a major hurricane making U.S. landfall well below the long-run average and estimating that overall storm energy for the season will run at roughly 40 to 45 percent of a typical year.
Forecasters attribute the quieter outlook to a mix of factors, including cooler pockets of water in parts of the tropical Atlantic and wind patterns that have made it harder for storm systems to organize. Even so, officials were careful to note that a below-normal season does not mean a harmless one, since it takes only a single storm making landfall in a populated area to produce serious damage.
The Atlantic season traditionally peaks between mid-September and mid-October, when ocean temperatures are at their warmest and wind shear tends to ease. Emergency management officials in Gulf Coast and Southeastern states used the update to repeat calls for residents to keep hurricane supply kits stocked and evacuation plans current heading into the season's final and typically busiest stretch.